Chechen Violence is Back
The recent resurgence of Chechen- and North Caucasus-related terrorism on Monday and Wednesday of this week points to the deep unresolved issues between Russia and its tiny region. Like in any situation of rebellion and civil strife, the short term details of the violence are sure to be complex. But the essential dynamics remain identical to what is seen in countless places around the world, including modern Iraq and Afghanistan: the interplay of identity, nationalism and sovereignty. There remains a segment of the Chechen population, and of the Caucasian population, that identifies itself separately from the rest of Russia. This unique sense of identity or separateness has persisted through two Chechen wars and 2 decades since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. How widely held among the people is this sense of ethno-national uniqueness? Evidently, popular enough to result in the death of several dozen innocents in the span of three days.
Russia under Putin is not interested in peace with Chechnya. Vladimir led the country in the offensive Second Chechen War in 1999, which reestablished Russian suzerainty in the region after a period of self-rule. He is also now using bombastic rhetoric in the aftermath of the recent attacks, to say nothing of the uptick in jingoistic prejudice that is sure to come, the early signs of which we are already seeing. And let’s not forget the oppression and ruthlessness that has characterized Chechnya under Russian control in recent years–always a popular cause of radicalization.
So Russia is not interested in peaceful coexistence. But if it were, the proper action would be quite simple: give them independence. Just let go. Barring the extermination of hundreds of thousands of human beings and totally remaking the society and culture of the region, it is clear that the unique sense of identity there will remain strong for a while. And as long as it is, there will be ethnic and nationalist tension, which will provide the fuel for radicalism and terrorism, which will result in the deaths of innocent Russians. The recent influence of global Islamic fanaticism on the terrorist movement adds another dimension of difference from the Russian population–religion.
Would Chechen independence hurt Russia in any way? Essentially, it is irrelevant because the positives for peace and prosperity in both countries would more than outweigh any negatives. Nonetheless, according to Wikipedia, the area of Russia is 6,592,800 square miles (17,075,400 square kilometers), and that of Chechnya is a whopping 6,680 square miles (17,300 square kilometers). That makes Chechnya literally one tenth of one percent of the total Russian land mass. I think Russia would be okay. In fact, I don’t think they would notice at all.
